Bowl Game analysis of all models included in the Massey Composite

Kenneth Massey compiles and displays dozens of College Football Models on his College Fooball Ranking Composite. In order to compare the performance of these models, John Trono calculated the number of bowl games correctly predicted by all models from 2002 - 2011. Here we extend the results found by Trono to include results from the 2012 to 2016 seasons.

Comparison of all models that appear every year from 2002 to 2016

Model Name 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Total Correct %
No. of Games 28 28 28 28 32 32 34 34 35 35 35 35 39 41 41 505
KAM 13 21 16 15 19 28 23 22 23 23 22 21 21 28 24 319 63.17
PFZ 15 18 15 19 20 23 21 22 21 23 25 17 21 32 24 316 62.57
FLM 15 20 18 13 22 23 21 18 25 23 22 22 19 27 19 307 60.79
BSS 11 18 20 18 18 19 24 14 22 21 22 22 22 32 24 307 60.79
MOR 15 17 15 15 22 17 24 18 24 21 25 20 22 26 23 304 60.2
BORN 14 20 14 17 21 20 22 18 22 19 25 19 19 29 23 302 59.8
COF 14 20 18 18 22 21 18 18 22 22 20 19 20 30 19 301 59.6
WLK 14 18 16 14 23 21 15 20 21 23 22 21 21 28 24 301 59.6
PIG 13 19 16 17 17 17 22 18 22 23 24 19 25 24 24 300 59.41
SAG1 14 19 15 15 20 21 17 15 21 24 22 20 22 30 24 299 59.21
HOW 16 18 15 16 23 20 16 19 23 23 20 16 22 28 22 297 58.81
MAR 14 21 16 17 19 20 15 20 22 24 23 15 19 27 23 295 58.42
MAS2 14 19 15 15 22 18 16 18 18 22 22 21 24 28 20 292 57.82
DOL 15 21 17 17 22 21 17 17 18 23 17 19 22 25 20 291 57.62
ASH 14 17 15 14 22 19 20 16 20 22 19 21 24 28 20 291 57.62
SOL 15 17 16 15 19 22 15 15 21 23 23 20 23 26 21 291 57.62
Avg. 14 18 14 15 23 20 16 16 21 21 21 21 21 28 22 291 57.62
MRK 15 18 16 16 20 17 15 19 20 21 20 18 24 25 23 287 56.83
BIH 15 19 15 14 20 18 18 16 22 23 18 23 22 24 19 286 56.63
RTH 14 18 15 15 19 22 18 15 20 23 20 19 23 25 20 286 56.63
SEL 14 20 16 14 18 21 18 16 19 22 20 20 24 24 20 286 56.63
BIL 14 20 17 17 20 16 15 19 22 18 17 20 20 27 23 285 56.44
COL 16 14 18 16 21 21 16 13 20 22 16 16 24 31 18 282 55.84
WEL 15 15 16 16 22 22 15 15 19 22 16 16 25 28 19 281 55.64
WIL 15 18 16 15 20 21 15 17 21 22 17 18 22 24 18 279 55.25
MJS 15 15 16 17 21 19 15 14 22 21 17 16 25 27 19 279 55.25
DES 15 17 17 17 18 17 12 20 21 24 19 17 17 25 22 278 55.05
AND 15 14 16 14 21 21 16 18 20 22 16 20 21 24 19 277 54.85
WOL 15 17 12 16 21 18 14 16 19 21 18 23 23 24 19 276 54.65
WOB 16 18 14 15 21 18 16 15 20 22 15 20 22 24 19 275 54.46
CSL 16 17 15 16 21 17 15 16 22 20 16 14 24 24 19 272 53.86

Comparison of all models alphabetically

Model Name 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Percentage
Total # of Bowl Games 28 28 28 28 32 32 34 34 35 35 35 35 39 41 41
4DT 14 0.4
AB3 13 21 0.566666667
ABC 14 21 19 14 15 21 21 16 20 22 24 20 0.539192399
ACR 21 19 23 20 24 20 23 0.607287449
ACU 20 17 19 19 18 18 20 22 17 21 21 29 24 0.590200445
ALB 17 20 25 22 0.604316547
ALD 18 0.529411765
AND 15 14 16 14 21 21 16 18 20 22 16 20 21 24 19 0.548514851
ARG 15 19 16 16 24 15 21 23 22 23 19 21 32 22 0.608879493
ARM 14 18 17 16 21 0.597222222
ASH 14 17 15 14 22 19 20 16 20 22 19 21 24 28 0.584051724
Ash 20 0.487804878
ATC 19 21 0.487804878
AUS 23 0.657142857
AVG 14 18 14 15 23 20 16 16 21 21 21 21 21 28 22 0.576237624
BAS 11 18 20 18 18 19 24 14 22 21 22 22 22 32 24 0.607920792
BBT 24 19 29 22 0.602564103
BCD 17 17 19 18 14 22 18 0.558035714
BCM 15 15 19 20 29 20 0.556603774
BCS 17 14 15 21 18 15 0.549450549
BD 16 13 0.517857143
BDF 18 19 15 19 18 27 21 24 20 22 25 30 0.612826603
BEM 22 0.6875
BFS 25 0.714285714
BIH 15 19 15 14 20 18 18 16 20 23 18 23 22 24 19 0.562376238
BIL 14 20 17 17 20 16 15 19 22 18 17 20 20 27 23 0.564356436
BMC 16 19 19 15 20 22 22 16 21 22 0.564705882
BNM 20 21 0.554054054
BOB 18 13 17 20 22 19 17 22 20 22 20 21 29 0.596330275
BOW 26 24 0.609756098
BPI 22 20 19 18 23 21 18 0.594936709
BRN 14 20 14 17 21 20 22 18 22 19 25 19 19 29 23 0.598019802
BSR 18 0.5625
BSS 16 16 19 21 16 16 17 26 21 0.510638298
BT 18 0.514285714
BTS 22 19 17 0.552380952
BUR 22 0.628571429
BWE 21 28 21 0.578512397
CA 17 16 14 0.47
CCI 19 0.542857143
CFN 23 18 21 0.613861386
CGV 19 18 16 19 17 15 18 22 25 20 16 25 29 22 0.589098532
CI 27 20 0.573170732
CJB 23 18 21 0.59047619
CK 25 0.641025641
CLA 16 18 16 17 22 20 19 18 23 22 20 0.604584527
CMV 19 17 19 19 18 14 17 25 21 21 18 23 21 0.561247216
COF 14 20 18 18 22 21 18 18 22 22 20 19 20 30 19 0.596039604
COL 16 14 18 16 21 21 16 13 20 22 16 16 24 31 18 0.558415842
COV 18 0.529411765
CPA 15 18 15 20 23 24 20 22 24 23 20 20 30 0.634259259
CPR 14 18 17 18 18 16 19 20 20 19 24 19 27 0.576388889
CRD 17 16 14 0.55952381
CSL 16 17 15 16 21 17 15 16 22 20 16 14 24 19 0.534482759
CSl 24 0.585365854
CTN 16 13 0.517857143
CTW 20 22 22 23 23 20 29 27 0.630508475
CUR 15 15 0.535714286
D1A 16 14 22 20 14 17 21 24 16 16 22 24 21 0.550111359
DAN 16 18 18 16 0.607142857
DC2 17 23 0.579710145
DCF 14 0.5
DCI 16 21 21 25 20 23 24 26 0.596610169
DEF 15 0.441176471
DES 15 17 17 17 18 17 12 20 21 24 19 17 17 25 22 0.55049505
DEV 19 0.59375
DEZ 22 18 22 21 22 23 23 0.592156863
DII 18 23 23 28 23 0.602094241
DKC 17 16 12 14 19 19 0.507853403
DOI 16 30 24 0.578512397
DOK 19 16 14 20 19 15 17 23 23 23 19 21 31 24 0.595387841
DOL 15 21 17 17 22 21 17 17 18 23 17 19 22 25 20 0.576237624
DP 19 15 14 21 22 19 21 23 22 24 19 20 26 25 0.607966457
DUN 14 17 17 18 24 16 24 24 20 17 21 29 23 0.593258427
DWI 15 18 19 21 21 18 17 23 21 21 19 17 23 0.588372093
ECD 21 0.6
ECK 14 14 16 16 21 0.5625
EFI 24 0.585365854
EL 19 14 0.5
ENG 21 20 24 20 0.544871795
ER 12 15 14 17 21 20 16 20 0.551020408
ERD 15 18 14 17 19 20 22 0.595238095
EZ 24 17 0.5
FAS 18 0.43902439
FEI 23 23 16 17 22 23 21 20 20 31 21 0.603053435
FIT 20 17 17 0.551020408
FLM 15 20 18 13 22 23 21 18 25 23 22 22 19 27 19 0.607920792
FLY 15 17 0.571428571
FMG 14 18 17 14 16 19 20 19 21 24 24 21 0.557739558
FPI 18 20 31 24 0.596153846
GBE 16 15 23 19 13 16 20 23 19 15 26 28 19 0.561247216
GFM 14 0.411764706
GLD 17 24 26 21 0.564102564
GM 16 14 20 20 16 20 0.563829787
GMP 18 15 13 13 19 15 0.46039604
GRL 21 18 19 19 21 0.550561798
GRM 16 0.571428571
GRN 13 20 14 14 20 19 17 14 0.536885246
GRR 25 21 23 0.621621622
GRS 13 16 17 18 19 16 19 22 21 25 28 19 0.576732673
GTF 14 0.411764706
GUN 21 15 20 21 0.57037037
GUP 18 14 16 21 0.594827586
HAN 20 0.625
HAT 16 14 22 21 15 20 25 26 20 0.554179567
HAW 14 19 20 14 0.531746032
HEN 18 23 20 17 23 30 20 0.585271318
HER 15 20 14 14 0.5625
HKB 17 17 24 20 22 19 28 21 0.571428571
HLG 21 24 0.642857143
HNL 21 23 23 20 22 28 21 0.605363985
HNM 14 0.5
HOL 15 18 0.589285714
HOW 16 18 15 16 23 20 16 19 23 23 20 16 22 28 22 0.588118812
HSF 17 0.607142857
HUB 15 16 0.553571429
IMS 15 18 14 18 22 18 15 19 0.569672131
INP 23 0.56097561
IPB 16 0.470588235
ISR 21 16 15 18 21 18 20 25 24 20 0.548476454
JnJ 18 0.514285714
JNK 16 15 21 19 16 18 21 21 20 16 22 30 18 0.563474388
JON 17 0.607142857
JRT 20 0.487804878
KAM 13 21 16 15 19 28 23 22 23 23 22 21 21 28 24 0.631683168
KEE 18 14 21 20 19 18 21 22 22 17 21 25 22 0.579064588
KEL 18 16 15 16 21 21 18 23 30 20 0.559322034
KEN 20 18 16 25 27 21 0.561946903
KGR 15 21 21 0.647727273
KH 20 25 28 25 0.628205128
KIS 14 16 0.535714286
KKM 16 0.470588235
KLK 18 15 20 24 19 23 22 24 23 20 19 27 21 0.61247216
KMV 21 21 26 18 17 0.591954023
KNT 17 22 22 19 16 25 27 21 0.572881356
KPK 19 20 21 23 22 27 19 0.578544061
KRA 21 15 17 16 21 22 17 22 24 25 18 0.554707379
LAU 22 0.628571429
LAW 16 14 23 24 17 23 23 22 0.620689655
LAZ 20 16 16 21 20 18 17 22 22 19 24 29 21 0.599547511
LMG 19 0.59375
LOG 19 21 27 23 0.576923077
LSD 25 26 20 0.58677686
LSW 29 19 0.585365854
LYD 21 18 0.609375
MAA 15 15 17 23 19 17 15 20 23 17 21 23 26 0.575688073
MAO 15 0.441176471
MAR 14 21 16 17 19 20 15 20 22 24 23 15 19 27 23 0.584158416
MAS 14 19 15 15 22 18 16 18 18 22 22 21 24 28 20 0.578217822
MAT 15 19 15 14 22 0.590277778
MAU 13 19 17 15 20 17 17 20 21 22 20 21 21 0.574468085
MAY 18 0.5625
MB 14 19 15 14 19 20 15 17 20 20 17 19 0.544270833
MCK 16 21 22 16 20 20 15 14 19 21 19 25 18 0.570765661
MCL 27 21 0.585365854
MDS 25 16 22 28 21 0.586387435
MEA 16 16 16 16 22 18 17 15 19 21 18 20 22 26 0.564655172
MGN 21 16 17 21 21 17 14 21 27 0.550314465
MGS 19 0.463414634
MGY 14 19 0.589285714
MIC 14 18 0.571428571
MJS 15 15 16 17 21 19 15 14 22 21 17 16 25 27 19 0.552475248
MKV 19 14 14 23 21 21 0.608695652
MMY 15 18 16 15 21 0.590277778
MNG 22 0.536585366
MOR 15 17 15 15 22 17 24 18 24 21 25 20 22 26 23 0.601980198
MPA 22 0.628571429
MR 19 0.542857143
MRK 15 18 16 16 20 17 15 19 20 21 20 18 25 20 0.557939914
mrk 24 0.615384615
MRS 20 22 0.608695652
MTN 17 13 14 21 25 0.548780488
MUE 16 0.571428571
MvG 18 21 28 0.582608696
MVG 23 0.56097561
MVP 27 19 0.56097561
NOA 16 0.457142857
NOL 15 14 17 20 20 20 17 28 20 0.531055901
Nolan 22 0.564102564
NOR 17 0.607142857
NSR 26 21 0.671428571
NUT 17 13 21 26 18 20 21 22 19 21 24 24 0.589928058
NYT 16 18 0.607142857
OAF 18 18 18 15 22 19 20 17 16 19 18 0.573065903
OMY 17 24 25 0.634615385
ONV 14 22 24 20 0.551724138
OSC 21 22 21 22 0.589041096
OSP 21 29 0.625
PAY 17 22 21 20 21 23 30 21 0.593220339
PBI 18 24 21 0.611650485
PCP 26 19 0.548780488
PFZ 15 18 15 19 20 23 21 22 21 23 25 17 21 32 24 0.625742574
PGH 16 15 20 21 17 20 22 26 18 0.531914894
PIG 13 19 16 17 17 17 22 18 22 23 24 19 25 24 24 0.594059406
PIR 23 23 21 20 28 22 0.60619469
PKL 15 0.46875
PPP 21 23 16 17 21 30 23 0.578544061
PR 14 18 12 13 21 0.48447205
PRV 24 0.685714286
PRZ 14 19 0.589285714
PSR 16 17 17 23 20 17 17 21 22 19 0.588785047
PTS 23 21 24 21 20 25 0.609090909
PUH 20 0.625
RAG 15 16 0.553571429
RAM 17 0.485714286
RAN 17 0.607142857
RBA 21 27 20 23 23 33 21 0.643678161
REI 16 15 21 23 17 24 24 20 0.617760618
REN 19 0.59375
REW 20 15 13 19 23 18 17 25 26 18 0.537396122
RFL 21 21 16 14 18 22 17 22 26 19 0.547486034
RGB 20 21 0.585714286
RKR 17 0.53125
RM 16 16 16 0.571428571
RME 21 24 22 25 0.613333333
ROG 22 22 0.628571429
ROH 16 22 0.633333333
RPI 16 22 17 0.597826087
RSE 15 17 16 15 21 17 0.573863636
RSL 19 29 21 0.570247934
RT 19 24 23 22 19 24 28 23 0.616949153
RTB 20 15 20 23 15 22 24 20 0.540816327
RTH 14 18 15 15 19 22 18 15 20 23 20 19 23 25 20 0.566336634
RTP 21 0.512195122
RTR 15 17 22 15 15 23 25 20 18 23 0.576119403
RTT 27 0.658536585
RUD 14 18 15 15 21 19 16 22 23 20 21 23 24 21 0.577494692
RW 23 21 15 0.602040816
RWL 17 0.607142857
RWP 16 14 23 29 22 20 22 31 21 0.601823708
RYN 16 23 22 0.586538462
S&P 21 22 19 26 32 25 0.64159292
SAG 14 19 15 15 20 21 17 15 21 24 22 20 22 30 24 0.592079208
SAU 13 19 16 13 22 17 17 22 0.562753036
SCH 15 18 21 22 23 0.592814371
SCP 16 0.571428571
SD 19 20 18 0.606382979
SE 14 18 13 16 20 20 15 17 21 23 16 20 23 0.557919622
SEL 14 20 16 14 18 21 18 16 19 22 20 20 24 24 20 0.566336634
SFX 17 21 22 17 20 31 26 0.592307692
SID 23 0.657142857
SLN 21 17 17 19 21 0.568862275
SLT 17 17 16 18 23 0.614864865
SMT 22 23 19 0.60952381
SNS 14 17 20 0.495145631
SOL 15 17 16 15 19 22 15 15 21 23 23 20 23 26 21 0.576237624
SOR 14 18 15 15 20 20 17 15 19 22 18 21 22 21 0.546808511
SP 21 19 19 23 23 24 19 22 34 0.6375
SPR 15 0.535714286
SPT 15 20 0.583333333
SQ 20 23 0.671875
SRC 25 0.609756098
STF 22 21 0.581081081
STH 21 21 17 19 22 20 23 23 28 22 0.59833795
STN 21 22 18 22 0.592857143
STU 20 20 18 22 27 0.578378378
SUN 14 18 17 24 0.613445378
SWT 14 0.5
TAT 13 0.464285714
TB 18 0.514285714
TFG 22 26 25 17 21 31 26 0.643678161
TMR 18 22 22 24 0.597222222
TOL 16 0.470588235
TOY 18 0.642857143
TPR 23 20 20 29 27 0.623036649
TR 14 20 14 14 21 21 15 0.515151515
TRP 19 33 24 0.628099174
TRX 15 19 21 24 16 21 23 18 0.608527132
TS 26 0.634146341
TSR 16 18 15 17 21 20 0.607954545
TSW 15 19 11 14 18 15 0.516853933
TUB 17 0.5
UCC 23 28 22 0.603305785
UCS 17 15 18 20 0.569105691
UPS 18 17 0.5
Vegas 15 24 0.65
VRN 16 20 22 19 22 27 18 0.553846154
WAJ 21 0.75
WAS 18 24 25 0.644230769
WEL 15 15 16 16 22 22 15 15 19 22 16 16 25 28 19 0.556435644
WIL 15 18 16 15 20 21 15 17 21 22 17 18 22 24 18 0.552475248
WIS 19 20 0.609375
WLK 14 18 16 14 23 21 15 20 21 23 22 21 21 28 24 0.596039604
WMR 20 30 0.625
WOB 16 18 14 15 21 18 16 15 20 22 15 20 22 24 19 0.544554455
WOL 15 17 12 16 21 18 14 16 19 21 18 23 23 24 19 0.546534653
WRM 22 0.628571429
WTS 13 21 0.566666667
WWP 20 28 21 0.570247934
XWP 22 23 20 20 19 0.581005587
YCM 21 0.512195122
YEA 16 15 0.553571429
YL 11 18 0.517857143

Raw Bowl Game csv data

2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002

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